PACEGurus -Gyan - Finance, Analytics, Risk Management, Actuaries
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Correlation among the returns of various sectors in 2016
Correlation among the returns of various sectors in 2016
·        
Correlation between the Banking and the Finance
sectors as well as between Power and Utilities Sector were the highest (0.96)
followed by correlation between Energy and Oil & Gas sector (0.93), between
Auto and Manufacturing Sector (0.9), Infrastructure and PSU Sector (0.9), Infrastructure
and Power sector (0.89), Infrastructure and Utilities sector (0.89)
·        
Telecom sector is least correlated with many
sectors like Health care (0.32), Energy (0.34), Oil & Gas (0.34), FMCG
(0.37) and Metal (0.37). Similarly Technology sector is less correlated with
Health care sector (0.35) during 2016.
·         
Stock Market performance of various sectors in India in 2016
Stock Market performance of various sectors in India in 2016
| 
Sector | 
Mean Annual Return (%) | 
Annualized Std Deviation (%) | 
Skewness | 
Kurtosis | 
| 
Auto | 
8.18 | 
21.18 | 
-0.29 | 
1.58 | 
| 
Banking | 
6.58 | 
20.77 | 
0.18 | 
0.79 | 
| 
Basic Materials | 
27.33 | 
21.6 | 
-0.63 | 
1.76 | 
| 
Capital Goods | 
-4.41 | 
22.76 | 
1.07 | 
5.62 | 
| 
Consumer Durables | 
-7.02 | 
18.64 | 
-0.41 | 
1.98 | 
| 
Energy | 
14.44 | 
17.57 | 
-0.45 | 
1.64 | 
| 
FMCG | 
3.25 | 
16.02 | 
0.06 | 
1.81 | 
| 
Finance | 
6.38 | 
18.61 | 
-0.17 | 
0.83 | 
| 
Healthcare | 
-14.25 | 
17.29 | 
-0.29 | 
1.01 | 
| 
Infrastructure | 
10.49 | 
20.38 | 
-0.67 | 
1.61 | 
| 
Manufacturing | 
3.21 | 
15.77 | 
-0.24 | 
1.1 | 
| 
Metal | 
31.08 | 
26.78 | 
0.23 | 
2.55 | 
| 
Oilgas | 
23.96 | 
18.67 | 
-0.22 | 
0.6 | 
| 
Power | 
0.64 | 
19.09 | 
-0.8 | 
1.91 | 
| 
PSU | 
11.48 | 
19.15 | 
-0.15 | 
1.48 | 
| 
Realty | 
-8.27 | 
30.57 | 
-1.05 | 
4.41 | 
| 
Technology | 
-9.45 | 
16.32 | 
0.09 | 
1.71 | 
| 
Telecom | 
-24.7 | 
22.87 | 
-0.03 | 
1.25 | 
| 
Utilities | 
9.1 | 
18.13 | 
-0.74 | 
2.09 | 
Analysis
·        
Metal sector has shown 31.08% growth during the
year followed by Basic materials (23.33%) and Oil & Gas sectors (23.96%).
These three sectors along with Energy (14.44%) and PSU (11.48%) have generated
stupendous growth in 2016.
·        
Telecom sector has lost badly during 2016 having
fallen by 24.7% in value, followed by health care sector (drop by 14.25%) and
Technology sector (9.45% drop)
·        
Many other core sectors like Realty, Consumer
durables and capital goods have shown negative growth during the year thus
impacting the market as a whole
·        
Realty sector continued to be the most volatile
of all sectors registering an annual standard deviation of 30.57%. Metal sector
though had a big positive growth has high volatility as well (26.78%). Telecom
sector also registered high volatility during the period apart from registering
the worst growth during the year.
·        
Manufacturing, FMCG and Technology occupied the
top three slots respectively with respect to more consistent and less
volatility in performance during the year 2016
·        
Capital goods sector is the only sector with
highly positively skewed returns where a couple of days had extremely high positive
returns. Realty, Power and Utilities sectors registering high negative Skewness
during the period indicating couple of days of sudden drastic fall in prices
·        
Kurtosis values of Capital Goods, Realty, Metal
and utilities sectors were phenomenally higher highlighting more number of
extreme movements during the periods and heavy tails whereas Oil & Gas,
Finance and Banking Industries had very few drastic extreme movements during
the period
Sunday, 18 December 2016
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