Tuesday, 3 January 2017

Correlation among the returns of various sectors in 2016

Correlation among the returns of various sectors in 2016

·         Correlation between the Banking and the Finance sectors as well as between Power and Utilities Sector were the highest (0.96) followed by correlation between Energy and Oil & Gas sector (0.93), between Auto and Manufacturing Sector (0.9), Infrastructure and PSU Sector (0.9), Infrastructure and Power sector (0.89), Infrastructure and Utilities sector (0.89)
·         Telecom sector is least correlated with many sectors like Health care (0.32), Energy (0.34), Oil & Gas (0.34), FMCG (0.37) and Metal (0.37). Similarly Technology sector is less correlated with Health care sector (0.35) during 2016.
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Stock Market performance of various sectors in India in 2016

Stock Market performance of various sectors in India in 2016

Sector
Mean Annual Return (%)
Annualized Std Deviation (%)
Skewness
Kurtosis
Auto
8.18
21.18
-0.29
1.58
Banking
6.58
20.77
0.18
0.79
Basic Materials
27.33
21.6
-0.63
1.76
Capital Goods
-4.41
22.76
1.07
5.62
Consumer Durables
-7.02
18.64
-0.41
1.98
Energy
14.44
17.57
-0.45
1.64
FMCG
3.25
16.02
0.06
1.81
Finance
6.38
18.61
-0.17
0.83
Healthcare
-14.25
17.29
-0.29
1.01
Infrastructure
10.49
20.38
-0.67
1.61
Manufacturing
3.21
15.77
-0.24
1.1
Metal
31.08
26.78
0.23
2.55
Oilgas
23.96
18.67
-0.22
0.6
Power
0.64
19.09
-0.8
1.91
PSU
11.48
19.15
-0.15
1.48
Realty
-8.27
30.57
-1.05
4.41
Technology
-9.45
16.32
0.09
1.71
Telecom
-24.7
22.87
-0.03
1.25
Utilities
9.1
18.13
-0.74
2.09

Analysis

·         Metal sector has shown 31.08% growth during the year followed by Basic materials (23.33%) and Oil & Gas sectors (23.96%). These three sectors along with Energy (14.44%) and PSU (11.48%) have generated stupendous growth in 2016.
·         Telecom sector has lost badly during 2016 having fallen by 24.7% in value, followed by health care sector (drop by 14.25%) and Technology sector (9.45% drop)
·         Many other core sectors like Realty, Consumer durables and capital goods have shown negative growth during the year thus impacting the market as a whole
·         Realty sector continued to be the most volatile of all sectors registering an annual standard deviation of 30.57%. Metal sector though had a big positive growth has high volatility as well (26.78%). Telecom sector also registered high volatility during the period apart from registering the worst growth during the year.
·         Manufacturing, FMCG and Technology occupied the top three slots respectively with respect to more consistent and less volatility in performance during the year 2016
·         Capital goods sector is the only sector with highly positively skewed returns where a couple of days had extremely high positive returns. Realty, Power and Utilities sectors registering high negative Skewness during the period indicating couple of days of sudden drastic fall in prices

·         Kurtosis values of Capital Goods, Realty, Metal and utilities sectors were phenomenally higher highlighting more number of extreme movements during the periods and heavy tails whereas Oil & Gas, Finance and Banking Industries had very few drastic extreme movements during the period